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May 2, 2016: Low Cost Index Fund Investing
We discuss fees in investing and believe that low fee index investing is the way to go.
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April 25, 2016: Tax Free Municipal Bond Funds & Portfolios
We discuss tax free municipal bond funds and introduce their tactical portfolios.
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April 18, 2016: Asset Class Trend Review
We review recent major asset class trends. Our analysis indicates that the recent rally was more induced by the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate policy than any fundamental.
- Recent Factset S&P earnings report says earnings in Q1 will be down
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April 11, 2016: Construction of Sound And Conservative Portfolios
We propose a simple way to construct conservative portfolios that can be the bedrock of your investments to cope with volatile markets.
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April 4, 2016: Performance Comparison Between Strategic And Tactical Allocation
Our performance comparison indicates that the tactical portfolios actually have done better than the strategic portfolios for the past 5 years.
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March 28, 2016: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
We review the two active total return bond ETFs.
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March 21, 2016: Small And Large Company Stock Performance In Different Economic Expansion Cycles
Small and large cap stocks behaved quite differently in early and late economic expansion cycles. We looked at the past 25 year history and discussed current situation.
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March 14, 2016: Are Tactical And Timing Strategies Losing Steam?
We review the recent performance of tactical asset allocation and long term timing based portfolios and point out the last one year severe underperformance. However, long term, these portfolios still deliver better risk adjusted terms.
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March 7, 2016: Defined Maturity Bond Fund Analysis
Smart rebalance when market trend changes can yield better returns than a fixed rebalance schedule
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February 29, 2016: Smart Strategic Asset Allocation Rebalance When Market Trend Changes
Smart rebalance when market trend changes can yield better returns than a fixed rebalance schedule
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February 22, 2016: Be Cash Smart
Being cash smart by utilizing banking services in a brokerage and investing wisely.
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February 15, 2016: Bond ETF Portfolios
We review total return bond ETFs and found DoubleLine TOTL is somewhat disappointing so far. We also review other multi-sector active bond ETFs.
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February 8, 2016: Newsletter Collection Update
We update our newsletter collection that classifies our past newsletters into several categories.
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February 1, 2016: Total Return Bond Fund Portfolios In A Volatile Period
We discuss total return bond funds and their associated portfolios. We also compare PIMCO short term bond fund (whose manager was named as Morningstar Fixed Income Manager of the Year in 2015) with Vanguard short term bond index fund.
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Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio Long Term Performance
This is the latest update (as of 12/31/2015) of the performance of Harry Browne’s permanent portfolio. In 2015, the portfolio had a negative -4.5% return. Since 1970, for the past 46 years, the average compound annual return of the permanent portfolio has been 8.35%. Harry Browne proposed the concept of permanent portfolio in his Fail-Safe Investing book in 1999. In the book, he showed the performance table of his ‘permanent portfolio’. The following table incorporated Harry Browne’s performance and the new performance since 2003. As of 12/31/2015: 1970 4.10% 1980 22.10% 1990 -0.70% 2000 2.70% 2010 11.92% 1971 13.40% 1981 -6.20% 1991 11.50% 2001 -1.00% 2011 8.16% 1972 18.70% 1982 23.30% 1992 4.00% 2002 7.20% 2012 5.5% 1973 10.60% 1983 4.30% 1993 12.60% 2003 13.76% 2013 -3.8% 1974 12.30% 1984 1.10% 1994 -2.40% 2004 6.64% 2014 7.6% 1975 3.70% 1985 20.10% 1995 16.60% 2005 8.01% 2015 -4.5% 1976 10.10% 1986 21.70% 1996 5.20% 2006 10.80% 1977 5.20% 1987 5.30% 1997 6.70% 2007 11.94% 1978 15.00% 1988 3.60% 1998 7.40% 2008 -2.03% 1979 36.70% 1989 14.80% 1999 4.70% 2009 9.64% Cumulative 328.62% 272.57% 186.24% 190.27% Annual 12.63% 10.55% 6.42% 6.64% Since 1970 8.35% The highlighted portion is from Browne’s book (page 81) and the rest is from MyPlanIQ’s Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. Notice there is some discrepancy for performance between 2000 to 2002. This is because in MyPlanIQ’s portfolio, Vanguard funds and Gold ETF (GLD) are used while in Browne’s calculation, he uses the following: Stock results are for an S&P 500 Index mutual fund, including reinvestment of dividends. Bond results are for a 30-year T-bond, including interest received. Gold results are for American Eagle 1-ounce coins. Cash results are for Treasury bills, assuming a 1-year bill was bought at start of each year. Cash in MyPlanIQ’s Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is modeled using 3 month Treasury bill’s returns. We will continue to update this table as time goes. See also Permanent Global Portfolio ETF Plan Permanent Portfolio ETF Plan
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January 25, 2016: Alternative Portfolios Review
We review several alternative portfolios and discuss their prospects in 2016.
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January 18, 2016: Strategic Asset Allocation: A Cautious Outlook
We are cautious on Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolios. With stocks still being at a high valuation, we believe these portfolios might suffer from a big loss before they can recover and grow again. We discuss long term valuations and forecasts.
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January 11, 2016: Review Of Trend Following Tactical Asset Allocation
2015 is one of the four years since 1970 that no one asset among stocks, REITs, gold and bonds derived more than 10% return. It is a trendless, whipsaw year that is hard for any trend following asset allocation portfolios.
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January 4, 2016: What Worked And Didn’t In 2015
2015 is a challenging year for both global strategic allocation portfolios as well as tactical portfolios.
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December 21, 2015: Distressed Assets
We take a note that in addition to the beaten down stocks in 2014, which continue to be in a more distressed state, high yield bonds and oil & gas stocks are joining the distressed asset group.
